Saturday, December 17, 2005

Zarqawi and al qaeda, losers!

The Iraqi insurgency has mainly consisted of the following groups:
1. Foreign Jihadists headed by Zarqawi(al qaeda in Iraq).
2. Saddam Hussein loyalists.
3. Former Baath party members / Sunnis.
4. Shia religious extremist, like Sadr.
Previously the Shia (#4) had joined the political process and now the Baathists/Sunnis (#3) have decided to give the political process a chance by participating in the December 15th election.

The participation by the Baathists/Sunnis is significant because it shows that the final 20% of Iraq's population have finally come to terms with losing the power they once had, and they have some faith that the Shia and Kurds won't take revenge against them. While the vast majority of the Baathists/Sunnis
weren't allied
with Zarqawi, they had no incentive to turn him in to Coalition Forces. Now as participants in the new Iraq, they do.

Which means Zarqawi and al qaeda have officially lost in Iraq. This doesn't mean the killing is finished, but that the final outcome is inevitable. Iraq will not be another Taliban Afghanistan. Which isn't a surprise considering Zarqawi was looking for greener pastures in Europe to terrorize 4 months ago.

The smartest strategy for Zarqawi now would be to bide his time. Even with the unity of the December 15th elections, there are a lot of differences between the various factions in Iraq. Exploiting those difference could gain some traction and attention. But Zarqawi has shown himself to be just a psychotic serial killer. Expect an orgy of killing as his farewell gift. Unless someone gets to him first.


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